2018 Grammy Predictions

 

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Welcome to the JoSHUa Tree, a blog by two friends obsessed with pop music and the latest news about the music industry. We can talk forever about these subjects, so we figured we might as well write about them, too.

To start, we made some predictions for Sunday’s 60th Annual Grammy Awards. 

*GENERAL FIELD CATEGORIES*

Record Of The Year:
“Redbone” — Childish Gambino

“Despacito” — Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber
“The Story Of O.J.” — Jay-Z
“HUMBLE.” — Kendrick Lamar
“24K Magic” — Bruno Mars

JACK: “Despacito”

When I look at the race for Record of the Year, you have 3 rap/hip-hop artists nominated, who may end up splitting a size-able chunk of the vote. I see Latin-infused hit “Despacito” capitalizing on that opening and taking home the trophy for Record of the Year.

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JOSH: “Redbone”

Donald Glover’s sinister soul record will win over Grammy voters young and old by capturing the 2017 zeitgeist with a 1970s aesthetic.

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Album Of The Year:
“Awaken, My Love!” — Childish Gambino
4:44 — Jay-Z
DAMN. — Kendrick Lamar
Melodrama — Lorde
24K Magic — Bruno Mars

JACK: DAMN.

Yes, there are 3 rap/hip-hop albums in contention together, and yes, a rap album hasn’t won since 2004, but nonetheless, Kendrick’s critical darling will take home the trophy that he wasn’t able to win in his past two efforts. There is an off-chance that the more radio-friendly Bruno Mars causes the upset, but I still think that’s highly unlikely.

JOSH: DAMN.

DAMN. was the year’s most critically acclaimed album, and a massive commercial success. Nearly every second and every word on this record feels essential.  This award should acknowledge a landmark year for Kendrick and the entire Hip Hop genre.

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Song Of The Year:
“Despacito” — Ramón Ayala, Justin Bieber, Jason “Poo Bear” Boyd, Erika Ender, Luis Fonsi & Marty James Garton, songwriters (Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber)

“4:44” — Shawn Carter & Dion Wilson, songwriters (Jay-Z)
“Issues” — Benny Blanco, Mikkel Storleer Eriksen, Tor Erik Hermansen, Julia Michaels & Justin Drew Tranter, songwriters (Julia Michaels)
“1-800-273-8255” — Alessia Caracciolo, Sir Robert Bryson Hall II, Arjun Ivatury & Khalid Robinson, songwriters (Logic Featuring Alessia Cara & Khalid)
“That’s What I Like” — Christopher Brody Brown, James Fauntleroy, Philip Lawrence, Bruno Mars, Ray Charles McCullough II, Jeremy Reeves, Ray Romulus & Jonathan Yip, songwriters (Bruno Mars)

JACK: “Despacito”

For those of you who may be wondering, “What is the difference between Song and Record of the Year?”, the former is meant to award the songwriting, while the latter judges the artist’s performance and production. In this category you often see more acoustic, singer-songwriter songs being nominated (think “Thinking Out Loud”, “Hello”, and “Stay With Me” – the past three winners). This year is very different – with arguably none of these nominees fitting that category. Nonetheless, I think we’ll once again see “Despacito” taking home this award together with Record of the Year. And what a great accomplishment that would be given that most of the song is in Spanish!

JOSH: “That’s What I Like”

While “Despacito” was the song of the summer, I think “That’s What I Like”  is more likely to endure as a classic (at least in the U.S.). Mars should win, but Jay-Z’s raw, remorseful “4:44” could pull off an upset.

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Best New Artist:
Alessia Cara

Khalid
Lil Uzi Vert
Julia Michaels
SZA

JACK: Khalid

I love the nominees for new artists this year – all of them have put strong releases this year. They have even collaborated together, with Alessia Cara and Khalid appearing on Song of the Year nominee “1-800-273-8255” and SZA and Khalid featured on the remix of Lorde’s “Homemade Dynamite”. This category has been known to be unpredictable, but I’ll make a prediction anyways: while many pundits are predicting Alessia Cara given her 3+ years of mainstream success, I’m going with Khalid, who strikes a nice balance between having mainstream exposure with “Location” and critical success on his debut album.

JOSH: Khalid

SZA made a better album, but Khalid’s youthful energy and honeyed voice made him even more ubiquitous in 2017.

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*POP FIELD*

Best Pop Solo Performance:
“Love So Soft” — Kelly Clarkson

“Praying” — Kesha
“Million Reasons” — Lady Gaga
“What About Us” — P!nk
“Shape Of You” — Ed Sheeran

JACK: “Shape of You”

We have an interesting dynamic going on in this category – four nominees with well-received, but not breakout commercial single releases, and one giant elephant in the room that reigned the Hot 100 for 12 weeks. While I’d like to see Kesha win this category and while I don’t necessarily think that this song is the “Best Pop Solo Performance”, my pick goes to “Shape of You”. The similarities between the other four, vocally-driven songs will likely cancel out each other’s chances of rising to the top.

JOSH: “Praying”

“Praying” is about Kesha rediscovering her inner strength while facing abuse; a moving anthem for the dawn of the  #MeToo movement. Definitely the most compelling nominee in this category.

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Best Pop Duo/Group Performance:
“Something Just Like This” — The Chainsmokers & Coldplay

“Despacito” — Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber
“Thunder” — Imagine Dragons
“Feel It Still” — Portugal. The Man
“Stay” — Zedd & Alessia Cara

JACK: “Feel It Still”

Even so many months later, I still can feel my endorphins flowing each time I hear the opening guitar hook in “Feel It Still”. I think the race here is going to be between “Despacito” and “Feel It Still”. This may be my personal biases talking more than anything else here, but I’m giving Portugal. The Man their first win here.

JOSH: “Feel It Still”

“Feel it Still” made Portugal. The Man’s odd moniker a household name. The band’s breakout year will have a storybook ending: snatching this Grammy from a field of pop titans.

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Best Pop Vocal Album:
Kaleidoscope EP — Coldplay

Lust For Life — Lana Del Rey
Evolve — Imagine Dragons
Rainbow — Kesha
Joanne — Lady Gaga
÷ (Divide) — Ed Sheeran

JACK:  ÷ (Divide)

I should start off in this category calling into question how the Recording Academy decided to nominate Coldplay’s Kaleidoscope EP over Lorde’s Melodrama – an Album of the Year nominee – in this category. That being said, with the nominees we have in front of us this year, I’m going with the ÷ (Divide) album for this category. While Ed was shut out of the major categories this year, this category tends to award the most popular albums with major hit singles, from Kelly Clarkson’s Stronger to the Black Eyed Peas The E.N.D.

JOSH:  ÷ (Divide)

Denied a nomination in the major categories, Sheeran’s set of worldwide smashes is bound to get a consolation prize.

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We skipped “Traditional Pop Vocal Album”- the rather boring domain of Tony Bennett, Michael Bublé and other old-fashioned crooners. If you have a hot take for this category, let us know.

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Tony Bennett, 13-time winner of the Grammy Award for Best Traditional Pop Album and 2018 nominee.